OFFSEASON OVERVIEW: Unlike their division rivals the Chicago Cubs, the Reds were hardly active for yet another offseason. Rather than even attempting to contend for big name players, the Reds once again hope that smaller moves like acquiring Brandon Phillips and David Ross will turn out as well this season. Cincinnati's biggest move this offseason was signing shortstop Alex Gonzalez to a three-year deal. Gonzalez is a light hitter but should help his pitchers with his stellar defense. GM Wayne Krivsky continued his plan of strengthening his bullpen and minimizing the offense by signing Mike Stanton, Dave Weathers, and Paul Wilson rather than going after steady hitters to help boost the lineup. The Reds also acquired Jeff Conine in a trade. His experience should be a welcome addition to the Reds' bench. A late trade for Kirk Saarloos from Oakland will help add some depth to a rotation that clearly has needed some over the years. The only significant loss to the team was infielder Rich Aurilla, who signed with San Fransisco. Aurilla was on the downside of his career, and the addition of Conine and Gonzalez should be good enough to replace him. The Reds like to improve their team with late deals for lesser players, so it is very likely that they may not even be done this offseason. OFFENSE: Unlike Reds teams of years past, the 2007 version features a lineup with a lot less power and more small type players. It's a peculiar plan considering that their home ballpark is clearly a place where home runs fly out frequently. These new small ball type players are Ryan Freel, Brandon Phillips, Scott Hatteberg, and Alex Gonzalez. Both Freel and Phillips took major steps last season in their development, and they now appear to be solid everyday players. Hatteberg shows great plate discipline, and when he is not drawing walks, he is usually moving runners over. The Reds have not eliminated all of their power, and they should see home runs from returning regulars Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr., assuming he stays healthy. It is very likely that Griffey will get hurt again, so if he does the Reds will most likely shift Freel to center field and play Conine in the outfield. The two wild cards in the lineup are catcher David Ross and third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. Ross is an interesting case because he hit 21 home runs in just 247 at bats, but all his other numbers fell off considerably post All-Star break. Encarnacion, showed a bit of pop in his bat as well, and his first year numbers suggest that he will be at least a solid regular in the majors.
PITCHING: While the Reds have always seemed to have the offense, it has been the pitching that has been the weak link for Cincinnati. This season they will return several familiar faces to an improving rotation. The staff is headed by Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. Arroyo got off to a fast start last year in the National League, but once he went around the league the second time, batters began to catch up with him. It will be interesting to see which Arroyo will show up in 2007. Harang, with much less publicity, is clearly the better pitcher of the two. He has been a solid starter in the Reds rotation for the last two seasons while posting an impressive strikeout rate. The rest of the rotation will be comprised of some sort of combination of mediocre starters Eric Milton, Kyle Lohse, Paul Wilson, and Kirk Saarloos. Talented, young prospect Homer Bailey will most likely begin the season in the minors, but he clearly has the talent to eventually be the Reds' third starter this season. The bullpen, which was a mess this time last season, has been improved, but at the costly price of trades involving players like Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. The middle relief should be solid this season with veterans such as Gary Majewski, Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier, and Todd Coffey. However, the bullpen will continue to be a problem if the Reds expect Dave Weathers to get the job done as their closer.
X-FACTOR: With a pitching staff that has been so inconsistent over the years, the emergence of Homer Bailey could do wonders for the Reds. It has been over a decade since Cincinnati has has a young pitcher come through their system like him. If he can join the team out of spring training and pitch up to his potential, the Reds may actually have a chance to win the Wild Card rather than choke it away like last season.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Homer Bailey is this year's Justin Verlander, Griffey plays 140 games, and the Reds find some one who can be lights out in the ninth. A year like this could quite possibly end up with Cincinnati celebrating a Wild Card berth.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Bronson Arroyo falls back into mediocrity, Griffey plays less than half a season, Bailey struggles in his first season, and David Ross shows that 2006 was a fluke. A season like this for Reds' fans would result in yet another losing record and a finish towards the bottom of the NL Central.
-David Cassilo
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