2007 TEAM OUTLOOK: MINNESOTA TWINS

OFFSEASON OVERVIEW: We have come accustom to quiet offseasons in Minnesota and nothing changed this year. You know your team plays in a small market when the only two free agents you signed were Ramon Ortiz and Jeff Cirillo. Since there is really nothing else to speak of in this section, I'll take a few moments to speak about the minimal impact they will have for the team. Cirillo is the team's best bat off the bench, and he will get some time at third base if Nick Punto struggles this year. The veteran Ortiz will compete for a starting spot towards the back end of the rotation. The Twins did lose a big part of their recent success this year when pitcher Brad Radke decided to retire. His veteran leadership and steady production will be hard to replace. The Twins will be without Shannon Stewart and Phil Nevin this season, but both players are past their prime and should not be major losses in any sense.


OFFENSE: Once again the Twins will be playing with one of the better everyday lineups in the American League. The Twins have quite possibly the two best hitters in the AL in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Both are perennial MVP candidates and tough outs for any pitcher. Both players would not be as much of a threat if it weren't for the excellent protection around them. While Torii Hunter may have lost a step, he still has 30 homer potential and cannot be taken lightly by any pitcher. While Hunter may be on the decline, it was Michael Cuddyer who has a breakout year for Minnesota last season. For the first time in his career he went over 100 RBIs. Cuddyer's ability to play several positions was also a huge help to Minnesota when they experienced their share of injuries. Outfielder Rondell White should also be able to add his share of home runs if he is able to stay healthy. Adding speed to the lineup will be second baseman Luis Castillo. His ability to get on base makes him a catalyst for the Twins offense. Rounding out the lineup are designated hitter Jason Kubel and shortstop Jason Bartlett. Both are light hitters and may be replaced before the season is over. Some positive contributors off the bench should be outfielder Lew Ford and infielder Jeff Cirillo.


PITCHING: The Twins' staff will again be lead by the league's best starter, Johan Santana. There is not a better pitcher in baseball who has proven to be better or more durable than last year's Cy Young. There is no reason to doubt that he won't be at this level for the upcoming season. The rest of the rotation is a giant question mark for Minnesota. Carlos Silva will start the season as their number two starter, but his inconsistency makes him too unreliable of an option. Young arms Boof Bonser and Matt Garza will be counted on to fill major spots in the rotation. They both have excelled in the minor leagues but have not shown that high level of pitching in their short major league stints. Glen Perkins, Sidney Ponson, Scott Baker, and Ramon Ortiz will all compete for the last spot in the rotation. Their bullpen is led by dominant closer Joe Nathan. He may not get the headlines that fellow closer Mariano Rivera gets, but he has been just as effective the past few years. Their set up men Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain have also bene very steady the past few years, and together they make one of the better late inning bullpens in baseball. As good as they are late in games, the Twins do have some trouble in middle relief. Several current minor leaguers will be counted on to fill roles in the sixth and seventh innings of games.


X-FACTOR: When the young superstar Francisco Liriano went down last year with arm trouble, the Twins learned that they would be without him for not only the end of 2006 but also all of 2007. Without him and Radke this season, the Twins are in search of some one who can step up and be the number two starter on the staff. That responsibility will fall on the shoulders of young pitcher Matt Garza. His impressive minor league numbers led to his rise to the top of many prospect lists. Garza struggled in his first major league action, and he must show this season that he can be as effective in the majors as he was in the minors. If this happens, he will be the number two starter they are looking for.


BEST CASE SCENARIO: Morneau and Mauer continue playing at their MVP level, Cuddyer shows that last season was the beginning of a good career, and Garza becomes this year's Liriano. If everything falls into place, the Twins will be making their first return to the World Series in over decade.


WORST CASE SCENARIO: Hunter's play experiences a major drop off, Santana is the only reliable starter in the rotation, and pitchers begin to figure out Justin Morneau. A year like this would almost certainly result in a failure to make a repeat appearance in the playoffs for the Twins.

-David Cassilo

2 comments:

susan said...

Do you have some examples of headlines Mariano Rivera gets over Joe Nathan? ESPN greatly favors Nathan, barely acknowledges Rivera. The awards voters all prefer Nathan, saying anyone on the Yankees is with a team of 'rich guys getting it done.' I've documented these cases, so wondered what headlines you referred to. You see Nathan equal or better than Rivera over the past few years which is your privilege. But it's not born out by the facts.

Rotoboys said...

To start things off, thanks for reading our blog, and enjoy the baseball previews. I'm always happy to debate sports topics so I was happy to see your post.

First of all, one headline I speak of is how Mariano Rivera is often referred to as the best closer of our generation, if not all time. Over the years only Derek Jeter and Mariano have seemed to be free from criticism by both the media and Yankee fans. I find this remarkable considering Rivera blew the 2001 World Series, with his inability to get outs coupled with a massive throwing error. Also, while Tom Gordon and the Yankee offense should have most of the blame, Mariano Rivera should be held accountable for not being able to close the door in the Yankees-Red Sox 2004 ALCS.

You said in your statement that award voters prefer Nathan. I have chosen to look at the last three years, which is the amount of time Nathan has been with Minnesota.

2004: Mariano Rivera 53 SVs, 1.94 ERA, 1.08 WHIp, 66 K's, 4-2 record
Joe Nathan 44 SVs, 1.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 89 Ks, 1-2 record

Cy Young Votes: Rivera 27 Nathan 1
MVP votes: Rivera 34 Nathan 12

2005: Mariano Rivera 43 SVs, 1.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIp, 80 K's, 7-4 record
Joe Nathan 43 SVs, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 94 Ks, 7-4 record

Cy Young Votes: 68 Rivera 0 Nathan
MVP votes: 59 Rivera 0 Nathan

2006: Mariano Rivera 34 SVs, 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 55 K's, 5-5 record
Joe Nathan 36 SVs, 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 95 Ks, 7-0 record

Cy Young Votes: Nathan 3 Rivera 0
MVP votes: Nathan 6 Rivera 2

As you can see Rivera clearly has more votes from these award voters who "all prefer Nathan." By the numbers I would say that Rivera and Nathan had similar 2004 season, Rivera had a better 2005, and Nathan had a better 2006. That is why I made the statement that Nathan has been equal or better to Rivera despite not getting the headlines.

Also, if you can find any articles like this http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/sports/features/9375/ about Joe Nathan. I'd be happy to read them.